Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 21.270005 25.533178 30.213416 35.704710 41.941934 48.777165 56.804194
2025-09-21 15.298049 20.967327 27.813768 36.564735 47.319081 59.968228 75.825189
2025-09-28 10.868428 16.710611 24.355923 34.824707 48.495814 65.442623 87.707278
2025-10-05 8.924023 15.079286 23.669737 36.074962 53.026889 74.857615 104.508646
2025-10-12 7.393628 13.648675 22.908980 36.928484 56.853745 83.355614 120.359943
2025-10-19 6.173952 12.407262 22.161848 37.581333 60.278358 91.332726 135.739403
2025-10-26 5.275057 11.485107 21.714933 38.527217 64.051900 99.842415 152.076100
2025-11-02 4.287301 10.192773 20.472800 38.071018 65.651784 105.296757 164.346264
2025-11-09 3.596487 9.292222 19.727068 38.260752 68.137082 112.021535 178.543824
2025-11-16 2.958575 8.346792 18.754438 37.940822 69.745229 117.461546 191.032304
2025-11-23 2.348372 7.304393 17.442212 36.881261 70.051912 120.907972 200.680511
2025-11-30 2.055684 6.908058 17.285018 37.784778 73.528872 129.211185 217.656719
2025-12-07 1.626412 6.093762 16.249174 37.130738 74.593591 134.180009 230.374284
2025-12-14 1.387354 5.707082 16.041922 37.998659 78.302334 143.473105 250.031560
2025-12-21 1.014414 4.795731 14.536099 36.204342 77.256370 145.147224 258.080508
2025-12-28 0.888769 4.596801 14.601375 37.492686 81.694418 155.777531 280.266990
2026-01-04 0.760421 4.337942 14.478322 38.372089 85.422071 165.361912 301.081215
2026-01-11 0.642539 4.065257 14.271810 39.044646 88.785678 174.442040 321.338702
2026-01-18 0.553584 3.864856 14.214205 40.018949 92.745804 184.636564 343.634270
2026-01-25 0.432730 3.459702 13.533072 39.549064 93.919297 190.132939 358.502065
2026-02-01 0.352218 3.189035 13.169662 39.744494 96.362715 197.858486 377.166267
2026-02-08 0.274480 2.873475 12.608447 39.414955 97.734317 203.745052 392.941731
2026-02-15 0.199031 2.496594 11.769977 38.323437 97.493372 206.761147 404.014130